The ECB warning that the public debt will go for 100% of GDP if the adjustment fails

The European Central Bank has estimated that Spain�s government debt will surpass the barrier of 100% of its gross domestic product (GDP), if it fails to complete the structural adjustment plan announced to restore sustainability to their accounts and reduce the deficit below the 3 percent limit imposed by Brussels. The Agency States that President Mario Draghi in its September issue, at worst the State provided that responsibility could rise up to a peak of 104% of GDP in 2016. This choice would triple pre-crisis levels when he was over 35%. The ECB defines three possible scenarios for Spain: the first is carried out on the basis of economic policies, the second depends on changes in interest rates and the third, in which the Government intends to infringement regulations before the Commission and its partners Union euros. The latter is, in the opinion of the Central Bank, the largest drop since it would prevent the deficit reduction and then is the worst consequence would be for Spanish public debt continue to rise over the next four years. �In this scenario, the debt-to-GDP ratio will peak at 104% in 2016 and then decrease to 103% in 2020?, the ECB said. The reason for the gap between the level of 68.5%, which closed the 2011 with 106% is, in principle, to credit up to 100,000 billion bailout of banks and, from there, the lack of success in reforms would make it impossible to recover a positive balance between revenue and expenditure. Restore the sustainability of public finances is a prerequisite for allocating resources to reduce liabilities and that require further borrowing.